Will AI first get IMO gold in 2026 or 2027?

Basic

Ṁ1551

2027

17%

chance

ALL

This market resolves based off of the outcome of the following two markets:

This resolves YES if the first resolves NO and the second resolves YES. Otherwise it resolves NO.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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First market includes 2025 (which is unusual, it's accepted that "by X" shouldn't include X). Second market in ambiguous but probably doesn't include 2027.

Why don't we ask more basic questions like when gpt can handle exponents.

predicts NO

@MarkIngraham I'd be happy to make this market if you don't want to for some reason. Do you have explicit resolution criteria in mind?

@BoltonBailey it would be hard to define as I keep asking the team to solve specific problems and they just hide the bug somewhere else

@BoltonBailey example

predicts NO

@MarkIngraham Can it do integer exponentiations? I feel like my resolution criterion would be something like "On the close date I ask the latest version of GPT questions of the form 'Raise <random 2 digit number> to the power of <random 1 digit number>' and if it gets 10 in a row right, I resolve YES"

@BoltonBailey it has no issue with anything rational

predicts NO

@MarkIngraham Hmm, the second response is wrong here (this is the old CHAT-GPT though)

@BoltonBailey the Indians type the numbers wrong

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