Will AI first get IMO gold in 2026 or 2027?
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This market resolves based off of the outcome of the following two markets:
This resolves YES if the first resolves NO and the second resolves YES. Otherwise it resolves NO.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@MarkIngraham I'd be happy to make this market if you don't want to for some reason. Do you have explicit resolution criteria in mind?
@BoltonBailey it would be hard to define as I keep asking the team to solve specific problems and they just hide the bug somewhere else
@MarkIngraham Can it do integer exponentiations? I feel like my resolution criterion would be something like "On the close date I ask the latest version of GPT questions of the form 'Raise <random 2 digit number> to the power of <random 1 digit number>' and if it gets 10 in a row right, I resolve YES"
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