Will AI first get IMO gold in 2026 or 2027? | Manifold

Will AI first get IMO gold in 2026 or 2027?

11

170Ṁ1629

2027

40%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This market resolves based off of the outcome of the following two markets:

This resolves YES if the first resolves NO and the second resolves YES. Otherwise it resolves NO.

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Will an AI publicly accessible before IMO 2025 get the gold medal on it?

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Related questions

Will an AI publicly accessible before IMO 2025 get the gold medal on it?

Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?

Will an AI win a gold medal on International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2025?

Will an AI get gold at the IMO? (no time restrain)

Will AI get BOTH gold and either bronze or silver on the IMO by end of 2025?

AI IMO 2025: How many AI labs announce a Gold performance at the IMO in 2025?

Conditional on AI getting at least bronze on the IMO, will it get gold by 2025?

Will AI get at least bronze on the IMO by end of 2025?

Will the "AI get gold on any IMO by the end of 2025" market resolve YES before the 2025 IMO?

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