
Will aesop be able to replace >50% of mathlib proofs by 2025-11-26?
18
1kṀ548Nov 26
39%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Sometime around the resolution date, I will write a script that samples random tactic-mode lemmas from mathlib, and replaces the proof of those lemmas with an invocation of aesop.
Resolves YES if aesop successfully proves >50% of the lemmas.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
You will use aesop
without any arguments or additional configuration (besides what is given in mathlib)?
People are also trading
Related questions
AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?
18% chance
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
51% chance
Will any AI model achieve > 40% on Frontier Math before 2026?
35% chance
In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)
72% chance
Will rw_search be able to replace >50% of mathlib proofs by 2025-11-26?
19% chance
What tactic will prove the most mathlib lemmas at the end of 2026?
Will Alphaproof achieve >30% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?
16% chance
Will the majority of mathematicians rely on formal computer proof assistants before the end of 2040?
60% chance
Will an AI model write the proof to the Riemann Hypothesis by the end of 2025?
1% chance
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2035?
39% chance