Which of these 8 famous folks will create a market?

Basic

Ṁ2531

resolved Jan 1

ALL

Resolved

YES

Anders Sandberg

Resolved

YES

Dylan Matthews

Resolved

William MacAskill

Resolved

Vitalik Buterin

Resolved

Robin Hanson

Resolved

Bryan Caplan

Resolved

Holden Karnofsky

Resolved

Noah Smith

Famous folks are:

Robin Hanson
Bryan Caplan
Anders Sandberg
William MacAskill
Dylan Matthews
Holden Karnofsky
Noah Smith
Vitalik Buterin

As taken from the Manifold Adoption group.

This market is quasi-duplicate of /Manifold/will-2-or-more-of-these-8-famous-fo . Updte for clarity - The time period that this market covers is meant to be the same as that market, apparently the 2023 calendar year.

#Famous People

#Manifold's 2023 Predictions

#New Year's Resolutions 2024

Get

1,000

and

1.00

6 Comments

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Here is a multi-market for 2024 - with permission to add new names!

This is deeply unfortunate, now Anders will be addicted to Manifold and it will be longer until I can read his book.

@BoltonBailey Anders Sandberg can resolve YES @AndersSandberg

People are buying NO on Dylan Matthews, which is confusing to me, since he has already made markets and I was intending to resolve him as a YES.

@BoltonBailey Ok, I managrammed the people who traded their money back. Apparently it's possible to resolve one market so I used that ability to resolve the Dylan Matthews market.

@BoltonBailey omg you didn't have to, it was my fault for not doing my homework!

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