Which of these 8 famous folks will create a market?

Famous People•Manifold's 2023 Predictions•New Year's Resolutions 2024

175

Ṁ2.5K

Ṁ580

resolved Jan 1

ALL

Resolved

YES

Anders Sandberg

Resolved

YES

Dylan Matthews

Resolved

Robin Hanson

Resolved

Bryan Caplan

Resolved

William MacAskill

Resolved

Holden Karnofsky

Resolved

Noah Smith

Resolved

Vitalik Buterin

Famous folks are:

Robin Hanson
Bryan Caplan
Anders Sandberg
William MacAskill
Dylan Matthews
Holden Karnofsky
Noah Smith
Vitalik Buterin

As taken from the Manifold Adoption group.

This market is quasi-duplicate of /Manifold/will-2-or-more-of-these-8-famous-fo . Updte for clarity - The time period that this market covers is meant to be the same as that market, apparently the 2023 calendar year.

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ107
2		Ṁ61
3		Ṁ43
4		Ṁ12
5		Ṁ6

6 Comments

12 Holders

67 Trades

Sort by:

bought Ṁ15 of Vitalik Buterin NO

Here is a multi-market for 2024 - with permission to add new names!

This is deeply unfortunate, now Anders will be addicted to Manifold and it will be longer until I can read his book.

bought Ṁ70 of Anders Sandberg YES

@BoltonBailey Anders Sandberg can resolve YES @AndersSandberg

People are buying NO on Dylan Matthews, which is confusing to me, since he has already made markets and I was intending to resolve him as a YES.

@BoltonBailey Ok, I managrammed the people who traded their money back. Apparently it's possible to resolve one market so I used that ability to resolve the Dylan Matthews market.