Which of these 8 famous folks will create a market?
12
173
580
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
YES
Anders Sandberg
Resolved
YES
Dylan Matthews
Resolved
NO
Robin Hanson
Resolved
NO
Bryan Caplan
Resolved
NO
William MacAskill
Resolved
NO
Holden Karnofsky
Resolved
NO
Noah Smith
Resolved
NO
Vitalik Buterin

Famous folks are:

  • Robin Hanson

  • Bryan Caplan

  • Anders Sandberg

  • William MacAskill

  • Dylan Matthews

  • Holden Karnofsky

  • Noah Smith

  • Vitalik Buterin

As taken from the Manifold Adoption group.


This market is quasi-duplicate of /Manifold/will-2-or-more-of-these-8-famous-fo . Updte for clarity - The time period that this market covers is meant to be the same as that market, apparently the 2023 calendar year.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

🏅 Top traders

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bought Ṁ15 of Vitalik Buterin NO

Here is a multi-market for 2024 - with permission to add new names!

This is deeply unfortunate, now Anders will be addicted to Manifold and it will be longer until I can read his book.

bought Ṁ70 of Anders Sandberg YES

@BoltonBailey Anders Sandberg can resolve YES @AndersSandberg

People are buying NO on Dylan Matthews, which is confusing to me, since he has already made markets and I was intending to resolve him as a YES.

@BoltonBailey Ok, I managrammed the people who traded their money back. Apparently it's possible to resolve one market so I used that ability to resolve the Dylan Matthews market.

@BoltonBailey omg you didn't have to, it was my fault for not doing my homework!