Which famous people will create a market in 2024?
Basic
26
Ṁ4930
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
YES
William MacAskill
Resolved
NO
Robin Hanson
Resolved
NO
Bryan Caplan
Resolved
NO
Holden Karnofsky
Resolved
NO
Noah Smith
Resolved
NO
Vitalik Buterin
Resolved
NO
Nate Silver
Resolved
NO
Tom Scott
Resolved
NO
Martin Shkreli
Resolved
NO
Tracy Alloway
Resolved
NO
Kanye West

This question asks which famous people will make a market on Manifold in the 2024 calendar year (in the time zone indicated by the close time). Feel free to add more names, subject to the following constraints:

  • Please only add names of people who have not yet made a market.

  • Please only add names of people who have at least 10k twitter followers or a commensurate amount of fame.

  • Please only add names of people who are the most well-known of people with their name.

Names that don't meet these criteria are subject to N/A.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ276
2Ṁ41
3Ṁ34
4Ṁ21
5Ṁ17
Sort by:

Only market with one of these names is https://manifold.markets/NoahSmith/who-will-be-the-first-nuzlocker-to, but I think it's not the famous Noah Smith, feel free to re-resolve if I'm wrong.

@Bayesian Believe

bought Ṁ10 NO

@grapes I don't. got a limit order at 50% though

Joe Weisenthal is making markets now, so I added his podcast co-host.

@BoltonBailey in what time zone

@Joshua In the time zone suggested by the close time. (Incidentally, I noticed that the close date was 12/30 just now, so I changed it to 12/31)

@BoltonBailey Oh wait I'm illiterate, he made the market today so it doesn't matter. Resolves yes when his identity is confirmed.

@Joshua Dang, can't believe I missed this one!

Potential arbs?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules