Which famous people will create a market in 2024?
23
175
แน€1k
2025
42%
Robin Hanson
38%
Nate Silver
30%
Tracy Alloway
26%
Bryan Caplan
25%
Noah Smith
23%
Martin Shkreli
15%
Vitalik Buterin
11%
Tom Scott
11%
Holden Karnofsky
3%
Kanye West
Resolved
YES
William MacAskill

This question asks which famous people will make a market on Manifold in the 2024 calendar year (in the time zone indicated by the close time). Feel free to add more names, subject to the following constraints:

  • Please only add names of people who have not yet made a market.

  • Please only add names of people who have at least 10k twitter followers or a commensurate amount of fame.

  • Please only add names of people who are the most well-known of people with their name.

Names that don't meet these criteria are subject to N/A.

Get แน€600 play money
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Kanye West
bought แน€10

@Bayesian Believe

bought แน€10 Kanye West NO

@grapes I don't. got a limit order at 50% though

bought แน€10 of Tracy Alloway NO

Joe Weisenthal is making markets now, so I added his podcast co-host.

bought แน€0 of William MacAskill NO

@BoltonBailey in what time zone

@Joshua In the time zone suggested by the close time. (Incidentally, I noticed that the close date was 12/30 just now, so I changed it to 12/31)

bought แน€200 of William MacAskill YES

@BoltonBailey Oh wait I'm illiterate, he made the market today so it doesn't matter. Resolves yes when his identity is confirmed.

bought แน€10 of William MacAskill YES

@Joshua Dang, can't believe I missed this one!

Potential arbs?