The House is the most likely for Republicans to lose despite being the only one of the 3 they currently hold. Democrats are very likely to pick up a seats in Alabama, Louisiana, and probably New York since their districts were changed.

Democrats could win the House but lose the national popular vote by 2%, perhaps more. In 2022 Republicans won the popular vote by 2.8% but were only 4 seats over the majority threshold.

Make it happen

• Trump is probably going to win.

• The most likely outcome for the Senate is a 50-50 split, in which case the tie will go to the Republicans.

• I haven't analyzed it in as much detail, but I expect the Republicans to hold on to a slight majority in the House. Given Biden's favorability numbers, having him on the ballot is going to hurt the Democrats in most of the other races.

We're multiplying three probabilities there, which to be fair probably aren't completely independent of each other, but nonetheless.

If you assign Trump a win probability of 70% which is much higher than what that market is at right now, R Senate 70%, and R house 70%, you should assume a trifecta to happen around 34.3% of the time. The fact that this market is being bet up almost as high as "Trump wins presidency" market is a little ridiculous

House: https://manifold.markets/lisamarsh/will-the-democrats-win-a-majority-i -> 30%

Senate: https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-republicans-take-the-majority -> 85%

Presidency: https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/will-a-democrat-win-the-white-house -> 45%

So the naive probability is probability is 10%. However, they're definitely correlated with each other, and the outcome where the House goes Republican and a Democrat wins the Presidency seems quite unlikely.

Now, looking at the same markets:

House: 44%

Senate: 73%

Presidency: 47%

Naive probability is now 15%, but again they're still very correlated