Republican party trifecta in 2024
49
6.8k
Dec 31
38%
chance

Resolves YES if Republicans control the Presidency and both the Senate and House of Representatives after the 2024 elections.

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bought Ṁ240 YES

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bought Ṁ100 YES
  • Trump is probably going to win.

  • The most likely outcome for the Senate is a 50-50 split, in which case the tie will go to the Republicans.

  • I haven't analyzed it in as much detail, but I expect the Republicans to hold on to a slight majority in the House. Given Biden's favorability numbers, having him on the ballot is going to hurt the Democrats in most of the other races.

bought Ṁ250 NO

We're multiplying three probabilities there, which to be fair probably aren't completely independent of each other, but nonetheless.

If you assign Trump a win probability of 70% which is much higher than what that market is at right now, R Senate 70%, and R house 70%, you should assume a trifecta to happen around 34.3% of the time. The fact that this market is being bet up almost as high as "Trump wins presidency" market is a little ridiculous

House: https://manifold.markets/lisamarsh/will-the-democrats-win-a-majority-i -> 30%

Senate: https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-republicans-take-the-majority -> 85%

Presidency: https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/will-a-democrat-win-the-white-house -> 45%

So the naive probability is probability is 10%. However, they're definitely correlated with each other, and the outcome where the House goes Republican and a Democrat wins the Presidency seems quite unlikely.

Now, looking at the same markets:

House: 44%

Senate: 73%

Presidency: 47%

Naive probability is now 15%, but again they're still very correlated