Will a Democrat win the White House in 2024?
85
239
1.1K
2025
48%
chance
This market resolves to "Yes" if the winner of the 2024 U.S. presidential election is a member of the Democratic party.
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predicts NO

It's really all on the fed's decisions in 2024, if it can maximize its F-score with its interest rates

2022 showed that voters fear the potential irreversible loss of democracy, and for ALL OF BIDEN'S numerous aggravating liabilities, the current leaders of the Republican race are certainly not reversing this fear.

[the Republican party constantly surprises us with how low it could really go...]