Traders here may be interested in the counterfactual market here https://manifold.markets/wilsonkime/if-joe-biden-is-not-the-nominee-wil

If Joe Biden is not the nominee, will a Democrat win the 2024 presidential election?

59% chance. If Biden is the Democratic Party nominee, this resolves N/A, otherwise resolves YES if the winner of the 2024 election is a Democrat or is nominated by the Democratic National Convention, NO if it’s a Republican or third party. Basically, the goal of this market is to see whether the m…

It's really all on the fed's decisions in 2024, if it can maximize its F-score with its interest rates

2022 showed that voters fear the potential irreversible loss of democracy, and for ALL OF BIDEN'S numerous aggravating liabilities, the current leaders of the Republican race are certainly not reversing this fear.

[the Republican party constantly surprises us with how low it could really go...]