If no nuclear weapon is detonated in 2022, what will Manifold's prediction be on Dec. 1?
9
220Ṁ376resolved Jan 8
Resolved as
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The resolution of this market (THIS) depends on the resolution of the linked marked below (LINK):
https://manifold.markets/jack/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-d8af7cf07475
If LINK resolves to YES, N/A, or PROB, or resolves before 12/1 then THIS resolves to N/A.
If LINK resolves to NO after 12/1, then THIS resolves to PROB, and the PROB value is the probability of LINK as of midnight the morning of Dec. 1 (i.e. one minute before Dec. 1, 2022 12:01 am).
If LINK has not resolved as of 3/1/2023, THIS resolves to N/A.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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