Who will have the highest number of robotaxis by 2029 (per capita) ?
Who will have the highest number of robotaxis by 2029 (per capita) ?
13
1kṀ7832028
29%
The United States
14%
China
3%
Luxembourg
4%
Germany
4%
France
4%
UK
14%
UAE
29%
Other Country
Measured as the number of at least level 4 autonomy (SAE) robotaxis on public roads on 1.1. 2029, divided by population of that country.
If there is conflicting or inaccurate data, I will consult traders or create a poll. If the data is lacking, I will resolve n/a.
Level 4 automated vehicles with remote fleet support for assistance (as Waymo, Zoox and others currently use (2025)) count as level 4!
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Update 2025-06-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding privately owned vehicles with level 4 autonomy:
A vehicle with the capability is not automatically counted as a robotaxi.
It will only be counted if it is actually made available for robotaxi usage, such as through an official opt-in program for a ridesharing network.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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