This is the thesis of a paper published in Ars Astronautica this month.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094576524001772

Link to PDF

Resolves YES if credible evidence is found of an advanced civilization that collapsed within 200 years of developing AI.

Resolves YES if Earth civilization collapses within 200 years.

Resolves NO if credible evidence of an extraterrestrial civilization is found that lasted more than 200 years beyond the development of AI.

Resolves NO if Earth civilization doesn’t collapse in the next 200 years.

I am open to input on how to define “collapse”. My current thought is that it’s best to define it in terms of a rapid and sustained decline in human population on earth, or the species that created AI on another planet.