When a general Theory of Everything (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theory_of_everything) uniting quantum mechanics and general relativity is discovered, will it be done by a human researcher or by an AI?
The market will be resolved to YES if the main equations of the new theory are produced by the AI, even if humans are awarded the Nobel prize. It is not enough if AI is used for secondary tasks like searching for patterns in the data.
The market will resolve as NA if the Theory of Everything is not found before 2050 or if the theory is published by human researchers and there is a controversy regarding whether the result is generated by an AI with no strong evidence either way.
Since the resolution is somewhat subjective, I will not bet on this market.
@mariopasquato If it's a single theory that can explain both gravity and quantum mechanics, than it will qualify. If it's something completely different, like if we learn that we live in a simulation, then the question will be resolved to N/A.
@OlegEterevsky hmm. If we live in a simulation, one could possibly convince the observer/programmer to give him superpowers. Like turning water into wine.