Will Blue Origin successfully land a spacecraft on the moon in 2024?
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Dec 31
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chance

With NASA giving Blue Origin the second moon landing contract,

they have detailed preliminary missions:

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/19/nasa-awards-blue-origin-sld-crew-lunar-lander-contract.html

Free, in explaining NASA’s selection, wrote that Blue Origin’s plan featured “compelling” strengths such as two uncrewed pathfinder missions in 2024 and 2025, early-stage technology maturation, excess capabilities of the lander itself, and a “reasonable and balance” price.

"Successfully" defined as once it lands, it does not lose radio contact upon landing, unlike the recently failed Ispace Hakuto-R lunar lander mission.

It could have a sketchy landing, maybe break some of its instruments, but if it still transmits telemetry after landing, it would resolve as "YES".

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