Will this question resolve on an even day?
4
4
Ṁ5.2KṀ100
resolved Jun 22
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
Every day, I will look at the new numbers on this public number generator website (https://avkg.com/en/daily-random/). If any of the three random numbers from 1 to 50 are 45 or above, I will resolve to NO if it is an odd day of the month, and to YES if it is an even day of the month. If all numbers are under 45 until the close date, I will resolve to NO.
For instance, today the numbers are 26, 22, 1, and so I do not resolve. Suppose tomorrow (June 18th) the numbers were 37, 16, 48. I would resolve to YES because 48 is greater than 45 and tomorrow is the 18th.
17th: 26 22 1
18th: 1 21 26
19th: 20 32 25
20th: 37 18 32
21st: 13 15 11
22nd: 45 30 31
45!!! And it's the 22nd, so an even day! YES
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I just realized that after the close date the market resolves as NO, and since it has 9/10 roughly every day to resolve, and since there are 9 days remaining to this thing, (9/10)^9 ~= 40%. So if my tortured math is right, there's like 40% it resolves NO, *plus* the regular roughly 50% otherwise (50% * (100%-40%) = 30%), which should give around 70% it resolves to NO? Hopefully I'm not making a silly mistake.
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