Will this question resolve on an even day?
4
4
100
resolved Jun 22
Resolved
YES
Every day, I will look at the new numbers on this public number generator website (https://avkg.com/en/daily-random/). If any of the three random numbers from 1 to 50 are 45 or above, I will resolve to NO if it is an odd day of the month, and to YES if it is an even day of the month. If all numbers are under 45 until the close date, I will resolve to NO. For instance, today the numbers are 26, 22, 1, and so I do not resolve. Suppose tomorrow (June 18th) the numbers were 37, 16, 48. I would resolve to YES because 48 is greater than 45 and tomorrow is the 18th. 17th: 26 22 1 18th: 1 21 26 19th: 20 32 25 20th: 37 18 32 21st: 13 15 11 22nd: 45 30 31 45!!! And it's the 22nd, so an even day! YES
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bought Ṁ20 of NO
I just realized that after the close date the market resolves as NO, and since it has 9/10 roughly every day to resolve, and since there are 9 days remaining to this thing, (9/10)^9 ~= 40%. So if my tortured math is right, there's like 40% it resolves NO, *plus* the regular roughly 50% otherwise (50% * (100%-40%) = 30%), which should give around 70% it resolves to NO? Hopefully I'm not making a silly mistake.
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bought Ṁ10 of YES
Ok if we assume days alternate even and odd (which they will until July 31), you have a 10% chance of resolving each day, a 9% the day after, 8.1% the day after that, etc. If tomorrow is even, there's a 52.5% chance of it resolving on an even day.
predicted YES
Theoretically it should alternate between 52.5% and 47.5% every day that it doesn't resolve. But the fees on that trade are 5 percentage points, so that's your entire profit margin. Need to pick a source of randomness that's more likely to resolve if you want the market to oscillate.
@ahalekelly Damn yeah you're right, oops
I thought of doing 1/2 or 1/3 of resolving every day, but for some reason decided against it. I'll try that tomorrow.
predicted YES
Yeah 1/2 would alternate between 67 and 33, 1/3 would alternate between 60 and 40 (not including fees)