Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if, by July 4, 2026, the United States government (including the Pentagon, Department of Defense, Office of the Director of National Intelligence, or any official government agency) makes a public statement explicitly acknowledging the existence of alien UFOs or extraterrestrial spacecraft. The statement must clearly affirm that unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) are of extraterrestrial origin, not merely that UAPs exist or remain unexplained. Resolution will be determined by official government statements published on defense.gov, dni.gov, or congressional records. Statements by individual officials without institutional backing do not qualify.

Background

In March 2024, the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office released a report which affirmed the absence of UFO information available to disclose. Between May 2023 and June 2024, 757 new reports of UAPs were received and investigated by the Defense Department's All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office. However, when asked what UAPs could be, a retired rear admiral stated "Strong evidence that they are nonhuman, higher intelligence," though this represents individual testimony rather than official government position. The 2024 National Defense Authorization Act requires each federal agency to review, identify, and organize each UAP record in its custody for disclosure to the public and transmission to the National Archives.

Considerations

The disclosure movement has repeatedly predicted government acknowledgment of alien contact without it materializing. Adherents of the disclosure movement have variously predicted that Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, or Pope Leo XIV are on the verge of initiating disclosure. Additionally, in 2025, the Wall Street Journal revealed that hundreds of Air Force personnel had been told, falsely, that there was "a secret program to harvest alien technology," highlighting how misinformation can spread within government institutions. The distinction between acknowledging unexplained phenomena and confirming extraterrestrial origin is critical for resolution.