Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Will the US government officially acknowledge retrieving non-human craft before January 1, 2027?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ100
Dec 31
2%
chance

This market resolves YES if, before January 1, 2027, an official representative of the US government (including, but not limited to, a member of Congress, a Cabinet official, the President, or a designated spokesperson for DoD, ODNI, or AARO) makes an on-record, unambiguous public statement acknowledging the physical retrieval of craft or materials assessed to be of non-human origin. Resolves NO if no such statement is made by the deadline.

Note: Statements that are later retracted, classified, or officially denied do not count. Leaks, whistleblower testimony without official corroboration, and unofficial comments do not count.

Market context
Technology
AI
World
Politics
Science
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will the US government take control of Anthropic or its major technologies before 2030?
+3% 1d23% chance
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
7% chance
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
9% chance
Will the US President or UK Prime Minister confirm the existence of Non-Human Intelligence (NHI) before the end of 2026?
7% chance
When in 2026 will US federal government present a new narrative, with documentation, regarding UAP/UFO events?
Will the US Government make a show of declassifying everything on UFOs / UAPs before 2030
45% chance
If Jesus Christ returns, will the US confirm aliens exist before 2027?
29% chance
Will the US pass a federal AI law before Dec 31, 2026?
33% chance
Will a US President (or Presidential Task Force) confirm an extraterrestrial or non-human intelligence by 2030?
34% chance
Will the US government functionally seize control of Anthropic by EOY2027?
15% chance