Braga Netto status before 2024 elections
Mini
2
1.3k
Sep 30
5%
Free on Brazilian soil, no warrant issued, elegible
33%
Free on Brazilian soil, no warrant issued, inelegible
3%
Free on Brazilian soil, warrant issued but not fulfilled, elegible
3%
Free on Brazilian soil, warrant issued but not fulfilled, inelegible
3%
Free on Brazilian soil after some kind of arrest, elegible
9%
Free on Brazilian soil after some kind of arrest, inelegible
7%
Warrant issued, sheltered in a foreign embassy, any eligibility status
5%
Warrant issued, fled Brazil, any eligibility status
17%
Serving jail time or house-arrest, any eligibility status
5%
Dead for any reason, other conditions unimportant
9%
Other, unlisted combination (please comment)

This market is inspired in this other market on Bolsonaro's legal status before the next (local) elections, but for Gen. Walter Braga Netto instead (former VP-candidate).

The reference date for resolving this market is the September 29th, 2024 - one week before the planned date for 2024 Elections, and when most arrests become prohibited by electoral law. Unlike the market on Bolsonaro, this one will close on the reference date, since problems with last minute bets have since then been addressed by Manifold's team.

I will count both temporary arrests and house-arrests as serving jail time, with no distinction on how much time was served. I will however provide answers distinguishing his status precisely on the Sep. 29th, 2024.

As of his eligibility status, I will consider the current Superior Electoral Court decision deeming Braga Netto ineligible, unless it has been overruled by any court with de facto power for that.

Hopefully the answers are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive, but I have provided an "Other combination" option for not anticipated outcomes. Be kind and comment your hypothesis if you buy that.

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