MANIFOLD
Will Iranian Minister of Interior Eskandar Momeni still be alive by June 1st 2026?
3
Ṁ100Ṁ89
May 31
47%
chance

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eskandar_Momeni

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if Eskandar Momeni is alive on June 1st, 2026, and NO if he is deceased by that date. Resolution will be determined by credible news reports confirming his death or official Iranian government statements regarding his status. If no credible confirmation of death is available by the resolution date, the market resolves YES.

  • Release of video filmed on or after 6/1/2026, or a live appearance, will resolve to YES

  • Reporting by major news organization confirming his death will result in a resolution to NO.

  • presupposes that Eskandar Momeni is still alive at the start of the market

Background

Eskandar Momeni (born 1962) has served as the Minister of Interior in the Government of Masoud Pezeshkian since August 2024. He has his background in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Momeni is a veteran of the Iran–Iraq War and has held senior law enforcement roles including head of the Police Emergency Center and chief of traffic police.

Considerations

Since becoming minister of interior in August 2024, he has remained a central figure in domestic security policy, including the lethal response to unrest in early 2026. Given the volatile security environment in Iran and his prominent role in the regime's security apparatus, there is elevated geopolitical risk that could affect his safety.

Market context
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