Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if Mojtaba Khamenei is confirmed dead by March 31, 2026. Resolution requires credible confirmation from major international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera, etc.) or official Iranian government statements. The death must be publicly announced and verified by at least two independent sources. Waiting period of a week after confirmation for the question to be resolved, to prevent wrong resolution in case media spreads fake news.

Background

Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader, was assassinated on February 28, 2026 during Israeli-United States strikes on Iran. By March 3, 2026, multiple media outlets indicated that Mojtaba Khamenei was a frontrunner to be Supreme Leader, and Iran's Assembly of Experts elected Ali Khamenei's son Mojtaba as the next Supreme Leader under pressure from the Revolutionary Guards. The 56-year-old younger Khamenei has never discussed the issue of succession publicly. As of March 3, Mojtaba Khamenei was reported to be in full health.

Considerations

According to the Iranian government in 2026, a son, his wife, his father, and his mother were killed in US-Israeli strikes, indicating Mojtaba lost multiple family members in the same attacks that killed his father. Some clerics expressed reservations about announcing him quickly, fearing that it could expose him as a target for the United States and Israel.

This description was generated by AI.