Will a new record be set for the number of people in space by the end of 1st September?
Plus
8
Ṁ14kresolved Sep 2
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
Reason for betting NO down so far here:
New Shepard 26 scheduled to launch on August 29
Polaris Dawn scheduled to launch no sooner than August 30
So New Shepard 26 would have to be delayed somehow. Even if they end up launching on the same day, New Shepard 26 would only spend a couple minutes at most above the Karman line. So it would likely have to launch with Polaris Dawn already in space, which is another factor to add to the equation.
Related questions
Related questions
Will we set a new record for number of people in space by mid 2025?
64% chance
Will there be a new record for people orbiting earth by the end of 2025?
42% chance
Will there be 50 people in space at any moment before 2030?
37% chance
When will be the first day that 100 or more humans are in space?
2036
Will there be 100 people in space at the same time before 2030?
20% chance
Will there be 25 or more people in space orbiting earth at the end of 2026?
30% chance
Will there be zero people in space for any period of time before 2040?
32% chance
By the end of 2029, will anyone surpass Valeri Polyakov's record for longest time continuously spent in space? (437 days.)
32% chance
2024: Will there be more than 20,000 Objects Launched into Outer Space?
89% chance
Will there be another spaceflight-related death by 2030?
49% chance