https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-a-spacexbranded-mission-land-p-daec0672de1c

Will a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2060?

55% chance.

https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-a-spacexbranded-mission-land-p-b644227ce070?r=QmVuamFtaW5Ja3V0YQ

Will a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2050?

50% chance.

Relative to the 2030 version, this should be higher but bounded by the probability of SpaceX surviving that long. No inside information but remember that companies tend to regress to mean, and Elon is spread thin, plus interest rates make for a totally different risk-investment story.