Inspired buy this skeet.
The spirit of this market is to capture the, now recurring, "is Trump dying" speculation from the left. I'm looking for evidence of Trump's health and capacity to engage with people outside his administration. I will not trade in this market.
For an appearance to count, it must be covered or attended by people that are not obvious Trump partisans. This could include a live event with an audience, interview with a reporter (for sufficiently partisan reporters this would have to be live), fielding questions at a press conference, etc.
Events where Trump partisans have sufficient control over the delivery to hide serious health concerns or brief sightings without interacting with the public would not count. In my last market on the topic. The first public event would have been the press release about the department of war.
Examples of things that would not count:
Picture of Trump leaving the White House for golf: there's no interaction and no evidence of actually playing golf.
Picture of Trump interacting with Jon Gruden: aside from the lack of a date, this presentation is under partisan control and could be edited/filtered to hide health issues. Gruden is a supporter and even if he posted the pic, it's not enough.
Reports/Picture of a small closed door meeting with Democrats: I think this is the grey area and I'm calling it insufficient. The meeting was closed door, so the coverage is all controlled by partisans or the participants (Schumer, Jefferies) are incentivized to not jeopardize their negotiation if, for example, Trump fell asleep on the desk.
Pre-recorded video address
If Trump actually dies, this resolves "or later".
1,000