Would You Rather? - Manifold chooses!
141
6.3kṀ61k
resolved Jul 1
Resolved
NO
Lose 100% of your mana (NO) -OR- Lose 5% of your real money (YES)
Resolved
YES
No more wars AND no more internet for 5 years (NO) -OR- Nothing happens (YES)
Resolved
YES
Reps win 2028, Dems 2032 and 2036 (NO) -OR- Dems win 2028 and 2032, Reps win 2036 (YES)
Resolved
YES
Biden is dem nominee for 2028 (NO) -OR- Trump is rep nominee for 2028 (YES)
Resolved
YES
Anthropic is placed in a 20 year time loop until they create ASI (NO) vs ASI guaranteed never created (YES)
Resolved
NO
Unlimited bacon but no more video games (NO) vs Games, unlimited games, but no more games (YES)
Resolved
N/A
Quit Manifold (NO) -OR- Lose USD$1000 (YES)
Resolved
NO
Drink cold drinks in winter (NO) -OR- Drink hot drinks in Summer (YES)
Resolved
NO
Constantly feel like you have to sneeze (NO) -OR- Have hiccups for the rest of your life (YES)
Resolved
YES
Eradicate all mosquito-born diseases globally, immediately (NO) -OR- Design and implement a (well-received) AI safety plan to dramatically lower x-risk (YES)
Resolved
YES
Go back in time 50 years (NO) -OR- Go into the future by 50 years (YES)
Resolved
YES
Infinite Strawberries (NO) -OR- Infinite Mango (YES)
Resolved
YES
Your thoughts are readable by every man you meet (NO) -OR- Every woman you meet (YES)
Resolved
NO
Lose all your memories but keep skills (NO) -OR- Lose all your skills but keep memories (YES)
Resolved
NO
Age faster: mentally (NO) -OR- physically (YES)
Resolved
NO
Free speech (NO) -OR- Free market (YES)
Resolved
NO
Be unable to speak (NO) -OR- Unable to read (YES)
Resolved
NO
Soup (NO) -OR- Salad (YES)
Resolved
NO
Have full honour and future loyalty (NO) -OR- A higher mana balance (YES)
Resolved
NO
Have the NO option be on the LEFT (NO) -OR- have the NO option be on the right (YES)

Each answer contains a dilemma: Would you rather pick the first option (NO) or the second option (YES)? Bet NO, or YES, according to your opinion. 1 person = 1 vote (per answer), so having more shares does not make your vote count for more.

Every week, the market will close.

If an answer has a clear majority of YES holders, that answer will resolve YES.

If an answer has a clear majority of NO holders, that answer will resolve NO.

If it's very close, and votes are still coming in, the option will remain un-resolved.

The market will then re-open for new submissions, with a new close date the next week. This continues as long as the market is worth running.


It does not matter what % the market is at, and bots holding positions are also counted.

Some guidlines:

  • I encourage you not to bet options to extremes (1% or 99%) before a quite clear majority has been established. Otherwise, it prevents others from betting toward that extreme, and can bias the results.

I may update these exact criteria to better match the spirit of the question if anyone has good suggestions, so please leave a comment (and ping me) if you do.

See also:

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ699
2Ṁ663
3Ṁ417
4Ṁ184
5Ṁ179
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy