Will the SotA open-source AI model in July 2026 use Test-Time Training?
7
1kṀ625
2026
38%
chance
AI
Technology
OpenAI
Technical AI Timelines
AI Impacts
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

I think the definition of SotA will matter here. Since you can probably max out many of the benchmarks with normal training and some kind of memory module implemented with weight updates during testing may just be a bottleneck.

opened a Ṁ5,000 NO at 50% order

People are also trading

When will OpenAI release an open source model?
Will AiresAI achieve the SoTA model on benchmarks by the end of the year?
13% chance
If OpenAI open-sources o3-mini*, will it open-source an even more powerful model before July 2026?
66% chance
When will an open-source AI video model comparable to Sora from OpenAI be released?
What will be true of OpenAI's Sora* model, at the end of 2025? [*see description]
Will open-source AI win (through 2025)?
37% chance
What will happen to Sora OpenAi by the end of 2025?
Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026?
31% chance
Will the largest AI training run in 2025 utilize Sophia, Second-order Clipped Stochastic Optimization?
17% chance
Will open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4)
71% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy