Resolves YES if, between market creation and November 15, 2026 11:59 PM Pacific, OpenAI makes a new language model available to the public in ChatGPT, the OpenAI API, or Codex.
"New" means a model name or version that was not publicly available before this market opened (October 15, 2026). For example, a GPT-6.2 model, a new mini/nano or Codex variant with its own name, a new open-weight model, or a successor to Astra.
Counts:
Any text or coding model with a new name, including mini, nano, Pro and Codex variants.
A public preview or a paid-tier-only release, as long as ordinary paying users or API customers can use it.
New open-weight language models that OpenAI releases publicly.
Does NOT count:
Date-stamped snapshots or silent updates of a model that already exists under the same name.
Image, video, audio/voice, embedding or moderation models.
Access limited to a waitlist, trusted testers, government reviewers or select enterprise partners.
Announcements, leaks or reports without public availability.
Source: an official OpenAI post (openai.com/index or openai.com/news), the OpenAI API changelog / models page (platform.openai.com/docs), or the ChatGPT release notes (help.openai.com). If those disagree, the creator will use the official OpenAI page that names the model as available.
Background: The Information reported (via The Decoder, Oct 14, 2026) that OpenAI employees expect "one or two new models" before the end of 2026, while the next flagship still needs alignment and safety work: https://the-decoder.com/openai-will-reportedly-ship-at-least-one-model-this-year-but-its-flagship-still-needs-alignment-work/
I will not trade in this market.
1,000I opened this at 45%. Here's why.
For YES: OpenAI ships something with a new name most months. Mini, Codex and Pro variants all count here, not just flagships. GPT-6.1 Sol came out earlier this month. The Information also reports staff expect "one or two new models" before year end: https://the-decoder.com/openai-will-reportedly-ship-at-least-one-model-this-year-but-its-flagship-still-needs-alignment-work/
For NO: the same report says the next flagship still needs alignment and safety work, plus up to 30 days of government review before release. And "before year end" leaves six weeks after this market closes.
What would move me: a dated launch event, a model name showing up in the API models list, or another report that the flagship has slipped into 2027.
I won't trade here.