Will the Hillary Clinton Leaderboard mystery be solved in May?
13
100Ṁ510
resolved May 1
Resolved
YES

This is puzzling to me and I can't think of an explanation for why @HillaryClinton is not on the all-time profit leaderboard, at https://manifold.markets/leaderboards. Will I feel like this is no longer a mystery, by the end of the month of May 2025?

(i'll only buy yes)

  • Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * The creator previously clarified in comments that the mystery was perceived as a bug in the all-time profit calculation, not a delay in leaderboard updates.

    • The creator has now indicated that this bug has been figured out and solved.

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bought Ṁ170 YES

I'm on the board now! Suspiciously after the month end/season end. So is the mystery just that the system was not updated until now?

@HillaryClinton no. the mystery was that there was a bug in the all time profit calculation. the lb was being updated every few days at least, that was not the issue

congrats to @ian for figuring it out and solving it quickly!

@Bayesian I am a noob lol. Interesting.

Probably worth tagging @ian

or maybe not sorry for the ping!

@Bayesian No problem. The leaderboard attempts to remove unranked profits but I think there's a bug with how it does that, so I would guess it's that.

@Bayesian profit: manaPayouts + balance - totalDeposits - unrankedManaInvested

It subtracts unranked mana invested, but I guess the amount they invested should just count as balance

@ian so... what I'm hearing is we need to add tariffs to correct this Mana imbalance

@Bayesian any profit coming in from the unranked markets gets taxed at 125%

@ian further evidence: https://manifold.markets/29 (their only real position is 140k in an unranked market so they show up on the losses leaderboard)

@Ziddletwix foiled by accounting identities once again!

@Ziddletwix thanks! Okay then I'll try just changing the sign then

@ian cool, we'll see how it shakes out when it updates.

fwiw, even beyond unrranked investments, i don't think the previous version was excluding unranked profits properly. e.g. easiest check is probably https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing, who still shows up on losses leaderboard but their big loss should be unranked.

bought Ṁ50 YES

@Ziddletwix oh right, the system doesn't account for subtracting profits from resolved unranked markets

Any update @Bayesian ?

@bens Yeah, at some point there was a 10x conversion, where mana got 10x more expensive, so profits during that time got scaled by 10x in worth, or something like that? I don’t remember it exactly, but semiotic speculated that the mystery came down to that and that seems plausible. Not currently sufficient to resolve the market though

@Bayesian ya, I was thinking about that, but I looked at Hillary's profit over time and I still don't think it makes sense? But maybe

Oh sweet I’m glad I’m not the only one who was confused by this!

I’ve also noticed quite a few other weird glitches relating to profit lately. Mostly in the sorting by overall profit or 1 week / 1 day profit in users’ trades tabs.

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