

This is puzzling to me and I can't think of an explanation for why @HillaryClinton is not on the all-time profit leaderboard, at https://manifold.markets/leaderboards. Will I feel like this is no longer a mystery, by the end of the month of May 2025?
(i'll only buy yes)
Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * The creator previously clarified in comments that the mystery was perceived as a bug in the all-time profit calculation, not a delay in leaderboard updates.
The creator has now indicated that this bug has been figured out and solved.
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ25 | |
2 | Ṁ22 | |
3 | Ṁ18 | |
4 | Ṁ14 | |
5 | Ṁ12 |
People are also trading
I'm on the board now! Suspiciously after the month end/season end. So is the mystery just that the system was not updated until now?

@HillaryClinton no. the mystery was that there was a bug in the all time profit calculation. the lb was being updated every few days at least, that was not the issue
@Bayesian No problem. The leaderboard attempts to remove unranked profits but I think there's a bug with how it does that, so I would guess it's that.
@Bayesian profit: manaPayouts + balance - totalDeposits - unrankedManaInvested
It subtracts unranked mana invested, but I guess the amount they invested should just count as balance
@ian further evidence: https://manifold.markets/29 (their only real position is 140k in an unranked market so they show up on the losses leaderboard)
@ian cool, we'll see how it shakes out when it updates.
fwiw, even beyond unrranked investments, i don't think the previous version was excluding unranked profits properly. e.g. easiest check is probably https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing, who still shows up on losses leaderboard but their big loss should be unranked.
@Ziddletwix oh right, the system doesn't account for subtracting profits from resolved unranked markets
@bens Yeah, at some point there was a 10x conversion, where mana got 10x more expensive, so profits during that time got scaled by 10x in worth, or something like that? I don’t remember it exactly, but semiotic speculated that the mystery came down to that and that seems plausible. Not currently sufficient to resolve the market though
@Bayesian ya, I was thinking about that, but I looked at Hillary's profit over time and I still don't think it makes sense? But maybe