@Bayesian Does || denote a Boolean OR in the options here? In other words, am I correct that "Dems DON'T control all 3 branches || A wealth tax ISN'T passed" will resolve YES if either (Dems do not control all 3 branches) OR (A wealth tax is not passed)?

@Twig If so, this market is incoherent - since it is dependent multiple choice, only one option can resolve YES, but if it is a boolean OR then at least three must resolve YES for any outcome.

@Twig I assume the bars are just separators, and they mean "and". Otherwise, you are right, this market would not make sense.

@HthePenguin Correct, the bars are separators. I hadnt thought of that ambiguity, will change the separator char

made it a +

If my understanding is correct, there are two arbitrage opportunities on this question.

@Twig Compare to https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-the-democrats-control-all-3-br and https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-the-united-states-pass-a-feder .

Will Democrats control all 3 branches of government at once before 2030?

14% chance. See also: @/Bayesian/will-the-dems-control-all-3-branche @/Bayesian/will-republicans-control-all-3-bran