Will OpenAI release o2 (or o3) before 2026?
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50
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2026
98.8%
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Resolved YES if OpenAI releases o2 by EOY 2025.

This also resolves YES if OpenAI releases a planning model similar to o1 but much better, that is widely believed to be o2, if they announce the end of the o[i] pattern. Just like if they release a model people call GPT-5 but call it ‘Orion’ officially and announce the GPT-N naming pattern ends.

See also:
/saulmunn/will-openai-will-release-gpt5-befor
/Soli/will-anthropic-release-a-model-that
/biased/when-will-openai-release-o1

  • Update 2024-20-12 (PST): - Market will also resolve YES if OpenAI releases o3 before 2026 (AI summary of creator comment)

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o3 COUNTS!

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How did I know

Maybe o3 is Orion? Like 3 stars in Orion's belt?

o3 COUNTS!

How does this resolve if they release a model that uses planning but is not called o2?

@DylanBowman I modified the description, is that a satisfactory clarification

@Bayesian What if they don't end the o pattern, but OpenAI decides to do a little trolling and name it o3

@StarkLN uh that counts as o2 yeah, as long as it has the o2 vibe

@copiumarc damn 👀

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