Will OpenAI release o2 (or o3) before 2026?

1kṀ21k

resolved Feb 6

Resolved

YES

ALL

Resolved YES if OpenAI releases o2 by EOY 2025.

This also resolves YES if OpenAI releases a planning model similar to o1 but much better, that is widely believed to be o2, if they announce the end of the o[i] pattern. Just like if they release a model people call GPT-5 but call it ‘Orion’ officially and announce the GPT-N naming pattern ends.

Update 2024-20-12 (PST): - Market will also resolve YES if OpenAI releases o3 before 2026 (AI summary of creator comment)

Update 2024-22-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market will resolve YES when:
- A regular person from at least one major country (50M+ population)
- Can pay to get access to
- An o3 model (including o3-mini)

Technology

OpenAI

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filled a Ṁ50 YES at 99.0% order

This should resolve YES, as o3 mini is now publicly available

Should this count as a release? Probably not right? but I should probably refine what release means. Please give suggestions, I'm planning to clarify it in the next day or 2

@Bayesian definitely not a release yet

@Bayesian when is it scheduled for release btw?

@Bayesian i see "o3-mini around the end of January and full o3 shortly after that"

@MalachiteEagle so when a regular person from at least 1 major country (50m+ pop) can pay some amount to get access to an o3 model (o3-mini low counts) this resolves YES?