Resolved YES if OpenAI releases o2 by EOY 2025.

This also resolves YES if OpenAI releases a planning model similar to o1 but much better, that is widely believed to be o2, if they announce the end of the o[i] pattern. Just like if they release a model people call GPT-5 but call it ‘Orion’ officially and announce the GPT-N naming pattern ends.

See also:
/saulmunn/will-openai-will-release-gpt5-befor
/Soli/will-anthropic-release-a-model-that
/biased/when-will-openai-release-o1

• Update 2024-20-12 (PST): - Market will also resolve YES if OpenAI releases o3 before 2026 (AI summary of creator comment)

• Update 2024-22-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market will resolve YES when:

  • A regular person from at least one major country (50M+ population)

  • Can pay to get access to

  • An o3 model (including o3-mini)