credit LW community survey.
"Release" means that a random member of the public can use it, possibly paid.
EDIT: i won’t bet in this market.
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Will GPT-5 be released before 2025?
35% chance
Will GPT-5 be released before Jan 2025?
36% chance
By when will OpenAI broadly release the model expected to be called GPT-5?
Will OpenAI release GPT-5 before the end of 2024?
38% chance
Will OpenAI release GPT-5 before the US elections (2024)?
17% chance
Will OpenAI release GTP-4.5 before GPT-5?
40% chance
In what month will OpenAI broadly release the model expected to be called GPT-5?
Will OpenAI release a GPT-4 agent product before GPT-5?
55% chance
Will GPT-5 be released before Apr 2025?
66% chance
Will OpenAI release GPT-5 before the US Presidential Election, which is set to take place on November 5th, 2024?
18% chance