Will OpenAI release a new frontier text AI model "next week" (dec8-dec14)?
13
1kṀ1781
Dec 14
61%
chance

  • Update 2025-12-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): "Frontier AI model" is defined as:

    • Models like the rumored releases discussed in the referenced article (e.g., GPT-5)

    • Experimental new models similar to how o1 was when released

    • Minor incremental versions like "gpt-5.1-nano" would NOT count

    • Versions like GPT-5.2 or similar significant releases would count

  • Update 2025-12-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market is specifically about frontier text AI models only. Image models (like images v2) do not count toward resolution.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

what is your definition of frontier

basically, will they release some model being rumored about and talked about in the information article referred to here. like gpt-5.1-nano wouldn't count, but anything like gpt-5.2 or an experimental new thing like o1 was, or stuff like that, count. even if the details of it are not matching the information article tbc; it's more about it being or at least describing itself as being frontier. doesn't need to actually surpass gemini 3 or anything like that

@Bayesian what about images v2

@Dulaman doesn't count, ig frontier text ai model argh

@Bayesian wonder if they'll give us new pretrained LLM + images v2 for shipmas

Would be tite ngl

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy