Will OpenAI go back on its voluntary commitment to AISI to share major new models w/AISI prior to release?
Will OpenAI go back on its voluntary commitment to AISI to share major new models w/AISI prior to release?
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Resolves to YES if OpenAI stops sharing major new models with AISI prior to release, before the end of 2025. If OpenAI, or AISI, closes before EOY 2025 and the market is still open, resolves NO. Otherwise, resolves NO at market close (EOY 2025).
(Note: Open/closed status of the model is irrelevant to this market.)
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@WilliamGunn then i don't think openai would be going back on its voluntary commitment? what do you think? may also N/A but would like to avoid it
sold Ṁ750 NO4mo
@Bayesian "... If OpenAI, or AISI, closes before EOY 2025 and the market is still open, resolves NO. Otherwise, resolves NO at market close (EOY 2025)."
That sounds a lot like saying resolves No if the AISI is disbanded/defunded to me?
Sold my shares though - however you want to clarify is fine with me.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
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