Will OpenAI go back on its voluntary commitment to AISI to share major new models w/AISI prior to release?

1kṀ4841

2026

39%

chance

ALL

Resolves to YES if OpenAI stops sharing major new models with AISI prior to release, before the end of 2025. If OpenAI, or AISI, closes before EOY 2025 and the market is still open, resolves NO. Otherwise, resolves NO at market close (EOY 2025).

(Note: Open/closed status of the model is irrelevant to this market.)

See also (market heavily inspired by these):

/ZviMowshowitz/will-google-join-the-voluntary-comm

/ZviMowshowitz/will-meta-join-the-voluntary-commit

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4 Comments

19 Holders

27 Trades

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bought Ṁ50 YES

What happens if the AISI is disbanded or defunded?

@WilliamGunn then i don't think openai would be going back on its voluntary commitment? what do you think? may also N/A but would like to avoid it

sold Ṁ750 NO

@Bayesian "... If OpenAI, or AISI, closes before EOY 2025 and the market is still open, resolves NO. Otherwise, resolves NO at market close (EOY 2025)."

That sounds a lot like saying resolves No if the AISI is disbanded/defunded to me?

Sold my shares though - however you want to clarify is fine with me.