Will Google join the voluntary commitment by OpenAI/Anthropic to AISI to share major new models w/AISI prior to release?
36
Ṁ38522026
85%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves to YES if Google enters into the same commitment, and shares their next major model release with the USA AISI in advance, or if Google announces it will no longer be in the frontier model business.
Resolves to NO if Google releases Gemini 2 or another similarly major frontier model release without sharing with the USA AISI, or deadline passes and no commitment has been made.
(Note: Open/closed status of the model is irrelevant to this market.)
(If Google has made this commitment already and I missed it, bet it to 99%, post your link and claim your prize now and I thank you for the cheap info.)
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will OpenAI go back on its voluntary commitment to AISI to share major new models w/AISI prior to release?
35% chance
Will xAI join the voluntary commitment by OpenAI/Anthropic to AISI to share major new models w/AISI prior to release?
68% chance
Will Meta join the voluntary commitment by OpenAI/Anthropic to AISI to share major new models w/AISI prior to release?
52% chance
Will OpenAI release a competitor to Google Search before 2025?
62% chance
Will OpenAI announce that they are cooperating with Deepmind, Anthropic, Meta or Google in order to mitigate race dynamics by 2027?
62% chance
Will Google have a better LLM than OpenAI by 2025?
35% chance
Which (if any) "big tech" companies will "open source" their AI models in 2024?
Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2030? (1000 mana subsidy)
51% chance
Will Anthropic and OpenAI collaborate substantially on a research paper before 2025?
24% chance
Will OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google DeepMind have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?
66% chance