Will Google join the voluntary commitment by OpenAI/Anthropic to AISI to share major new models w/AISI prior to release?
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86%
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Resolves to YES if Google enters into the same commitment, and shares their next major model release with the USA AISI in advance, or if Google announces it will no longer be in the frontier model business.
Resolves to NO if Google releases Gemini 2 or another similarly major frontier model release without sharing with the USA AISI, or deadline passes and no commitment has been made.
(Note: Open/closed status of the model is irrelevant to this market.)
(If Google has made this commitment already and I missed it, bet it to 99%, post your link and claim your prize now and I thank you for the cheap info.)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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