Will I (@Bayesian) officially become a superforecaster, before 2027?
A bit of context:
I have gotten i think pretty good at forecasting some things I enjoy forecasting (especially ai development), and i think in those subtopics i'm definitely superforecaster level (maybe top 1% of participants?). I am not that interested in and don't know that much about geopolitics and us politics though, and those seem like the topics most important for superforecaster classification and for the field of forecasting in general.
I am very adhd brained these days and not that motivated to become one, but if it seems fun i might get obsessed and put in a bunch of work. hard to tell.
1,000.
https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/
Do You Have What It Takes?
Each autumn, Good Judgment will identify and recruit potential Superforecasters from the ranks of GJ Open forecasters. If you think you have what it takes to be a Superforecaster, put that belief to an objective test: forecast on at least 100 GJ Open questions (cumulatively, not necessarily in one year). We look at many metrics, but the one we look at closest is average accuracy score per closed question. We also look at comment quality, because understanding the rationales for forecasts is important to our partners and clients. Collegiality is also important to ensure good teamwork with other Superforecasters. And it goes without saying, you’ll need to be in compliance with the GJ Open Terms of Service.
Those who consistently outperform the crowd are automatically eligible for our annual pro Super selection process and potentially a trial engagement. Those who successfully complete a three-month probation period will become full-fledged Superforecasters.
This seems like a lot of loops to jump through and with a lot of room for subjective judgement by the Good Judgement team.
How strongly are you motivated to actively attempt this?
@TheAllMemeingEye yeah the process is quite long, if you haven’t expressed interest in looking up what it would entail to secure the designation yet, the odds of you even entering and sticking it out seem quite low?
@Bayesian I may or may not have some very recent experience with the process. Superforecaster® is a registered trademark and you only get to call yourself that after your above mentioned probation. So to get it before 2027 you’d need to get to 100 resolved questions on Good Judgment Open this fall (and of course score well and leave nice comments and such). That’s definitely still possible but a bit of work. I think it’s ~about as hard as being highly profitable on Manifold. On the motivation bit I would like to point out that, like Manifold, forecasting on GJO can be quite fun. Anyway, here is the link, try it! https://www.gjopen.com/
@Bayesian I was involved with GJ (not the Open one but its original research parent) in its early days, and back then to be a super you needed to finish in the top 2% of whatever forecasting contest they had running. GJO probably has a similar threshold.