Will I (@Bayesian) be a superforecaster before 2027? | Manifold

Will I (@Bayesian) be a superforecaster before 2027?

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Will I (@Bayesian) officially become a superforecaster, before 2027?

A bit of context:

I have gotten i think pretty good at forecasting some things I enjoy forecasting (especially ai development), and i think in those subtopics i'm definitely superforecaster level (maybe top 1% of participants?). I am not that interested in and don't know that much about geopolitics and us politics though, and those seem like the topics most important for superforecaster classification and for the field of forecasting in general.

I am very adhd brained these days and not that motivated to become one, but if it seems fun i might get obsessed and put in a bunch of work. hard to tell.

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