and

Will it be known at the end of 2025 that a Manhattan-like project to build AGI in the US is underway? This market will resolve to the preponderance of evidence on either side.

‘Manhattan-like’ refers to a large, not necessarily secret, attempt by the US Government to build an organization capable of pushing forward the state of the art in AI significantly. The US Government needs to retain some control over the decisions of this organization, they don't just help fund a new independent organization. Investment from the government must be significant, but if it's unknown but seems significant or like it's planned to be significant in the future that's fine.