Predictle #3

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Let’s gooooo this game rules

@Sketchy helps to roughly remember the prob for 2 of the markets

Predictle #3

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Ok I take it all back predictle is a dumb game delete this

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Play at https://manifold.markets/predictle?r=UG9saXRpY2FsRWNvbm9teVBL

Yooooooooooooo NAILED IT I think it helped that I have been following the Venezuela Market, on it's face I'd put the likelihood lower. Also really that high for philosophy solved???? I lucked out there wasn't something less likely Predictle #3
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I’ve got an issue with today’s. There were ties and yet I was marked wrong for having the order flipped. This is SERIOUS business that must be handled ASAP

@MRME Predictle #3

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@MRME i think that's a clever way to detect cheaters

@root also clever would be to snipe the markets listed each day and mess with probabilities after the system freezes them.

i think you must be able to detect sub-percentage differences in market price. feel it in your bones and the fair market price will reveal itself

@Bayesian I do actually worry that ppl are going and messing with the market odds right after playing. The game should be set up so that it’s just based on the market odds at the start of the day or something.

@bens isnt that a good thing? Means people that try to cheat get tricked and get it wrong. Like messing with the market odds doesnt affect people that arent cheating does it? Except insofwr as they saw the market price within the last day and misjudge the correct ordering bc of that but that seems minor enough

@bens isn’t that already how it works? (The market price is logged at the start of the day)

Haven’t looked to see how it works, but eg the Venezuela market for me shows the price as of start of day, not the current price (which is good imo—it’s great that predictle is encouraging people to click on the link and bet after, but ideally the guessing is based on a universal shared snapshot)

@Ziddletwix @Bayesian oh it indeed could be how it works?! I assumed it was just using the live market odds at time of play.

@bens pretty sure it’s at start of day - I just went and checked afterwards and the “real” ordering is actually different now

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Play at https://manifold.markets/predictle?r=YmVucw

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Play at https://manifold.markets/predictle?r=cm9vdA

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Play at https://manifold.markets/predictle?r=am9uYXRoYW4

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Play at https://manifold.markets/predictle?r=cmVtZWR5cmFpbg

Predictle #3

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Play at https://manifold.markets/predictle?r=SnVzc2lWaWxsZUhlaXNrYW5lbg

2 attempts - day 1. 1 attempt day 2. attempts day 3..

How the winners are decided?

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Play at https://manifold.markets/predictle?r=TXlEcmVhbUlzSGVyZTIwMTg

@1bets do not ever share what the day's markets are again please (note: he did this in a now deleted message)