Resolves to the user with the fewest wrong guesses for predictles from Thursday January 8 (predictle #3) to Wednesday January 14 (predictle #9), inclusive. Not completing a day counts as 4 wrong guesses.
I may remove players from the competition at my own discretion, especially if they break the rules
Play at https://manifold.markets/predictle?r=QmF5ZXNpYW4
sums (day 7, predictle #9):
@Ziddletwix : 2 + 0 + 0 + 1 + 0 + 1 + 1 = 5
@Sketchy : 0 + 1 + 0 + 1 + 0 + 2 + 1 = 5
@spiderduckpig : 0 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 6
@Bayesian : 2 + 2 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 1 + 1 = 6
@bens : 2 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 0 = 7
@JussiVilleHeiskanen : 2 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 0 + 0 = 7
@vi : 1 + 1 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 8
@Kfredric : 1 + 1 + 0 + 2 + 2 + 1 + 1 = 8
@BenAybar : 1 + 0 + 0 + 1 + 3 + 3 + 1 = 9
@jonathan : 1 + 1 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 2 = 9
@MarySmith : 0 + 2 + 2 + 1 + 2 + 2 + 3 = 12
@root : 4 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 2 + 3 = 13
@Hakari : 1 + 3 + 1 + 1 + 3 + 2 + 2 = 13
@No_uh : 4 + 1 + 1 + 2 + 1 + 2 + 3 = 14
@MRME : 2 + 1 + 4 + 1 + 4 + 2 + 2 = 16
@1bets : ?
Update 2026-01-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on what counts as cheating: If one of the Predictle questions is about a market you created, having better understanding of the likely market price when playing Predictle is allowed and does not count as cheating.
Update 2026-01-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The tiebreaker between @Sketchy and @Ziddletwix will not be determined by continuing to do predictles each day until one beats the other. A different sudden death battle format will be used (details to come).
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ409 | |
| 2 | Ṁ259 | |
| 3 | Ṁ151 | |
| 4 | Ṁ126 | |
| 5 | Ṁ112 |
People are also trading
@traders @Sketchy and @Ziddletwix will face off today, January 19, 2026, at 4PM PT, or 7PM ET, in the Manifold discord server's VC. Only one of them will emerge victorious. I encourage you all to attend. Live trading is encouraged.
a very even match, taking a grueling ~40 rounds to crown a winner (lasting long enough that a few markets started to repeat). I definitely had some lucky guesses in the original week to make the finals (my avg will probably be higher going forward). Thanks to @Bayesian (and Claude) for coding up a very cool site to run the finals
And apologies to all other contestants whose Manifold accounts will now all be deleted.
@bens indeed, although last time came with a real prize. I will petition staff to add “luckiest manifold user” to my achievements page
@traders @Sketchy and @Ziddletwix will face off today, January 19, 2026, at 4PM PT, or 7PM ET, in the Manifold discord server's VC. Only one of them will emerge victorious. I encourage you all to attend. Live trading is encouraged.
Format: They will each be presented with 2 binary markets. They will have to select which one has a higher market probability, as recorded before the battle begun. This will be repeated until one of them is defeated. They will have TBD lives. Each incorrect guess will take one life. The last man standing (without 0 lives) will win. If they both reach 0 lives, the first to err will be defeated.
i'm hoping it follows rough predictle eligibility (binary market, recently-ish traded, hopefully definition is vaguely legible from the title) but it's entirely up to @Bayesian . i am back to wifi from a weekend away and i skimmed the nyt headlines today so i should be ready to go
Predictle #12
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Play at https://manifold.markets/predictle?r=YmVucw
If y’all don’t hurry up with the showdown, I’m gonna catch up.
@Ziddletwix Wait actually… can we get @LoganTurner or @strutheo to stream a live competition? That would be kind of cool.