When will Russia capture Kostyantynivka?
11
Ṁ1kṀ8.7kDec 31
5%
Before February
40%
Before March
70%
Before April
68%
Before May
75%
Before June
79%
Before July
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by January 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
See https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by for the full rules.
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This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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