GPT-6 released in 2026?

Question

This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI publicly announces the release of a model explicitly named GPT-6 during the calendar year of  2026

A release is defined as:

A public launch or general availability announcement of a model explicitly named GPT-6 by OpenAI.

Availability of the model via API, ChatGPT, or any other official OpenAI product or platform.

If OpenAI releases a model under a different name (e.g., GPT-5.5, GPT-Next, or any unnamed model), this market will not resolve to “Yes” unless the model is clearly and officially identified by OpenAI as GPT-6.

Previews, demos, leaks, research papers, or internal/private access without an official public release do not qualify.

The primary resolution sources will be OpenAI’s official blog, press releases, or verified social media accounts. If needed, a consensus of credible reporting from major news or technology media may be used for confirmation.

If no qualifying release is announced during 2026, the market will resolve to “No”.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 85% chance (70 traders, as of Jul 20, 2026).