Resolution criteria

As of late 2025, there is no confirmed release date for ChatGPT-6, and OpenAI has explicitly stated it will not arrive in 2025. This market resolves YES if OpenAI releases a product officially named "ChatGPT6" (or any variant like "ChatGPT-6", "ChatGPT 6", etc.) by December 31, 2027. Resolution will be based on official OpenAI announcements, press releases, or product availability on OpenAI's website or official channels. The market resolves NO if no such product is released by the deadline.

Background

On October 18, 2025, OpenAI officially confirmed that GPT-6 will not ship this year, and the company continues to refine GPT-5 and its reasoning variants while preparing the infrastructure for the next generation. The most likely GPT-6 release date is the first half of 2026. Sam Altman has hinted that the gap between GPT-5 and GPT-6 will be shorter than the long interval between GPT-4 (March 2023) and GPT-5 (August 2025).

Considerations

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman recently indicated that "GPT-6 will be renamed GPT-6-7, you're welcome" via a post on X, revealing the company's tongue-in-cheek plan to rename GPT-5's successor. This suggests OpenAI may use alternative naming conventions for its next major release, which could affect how this market resolves depending on whether alternative names are considered equivalent to "ChatGPT6."