Resolution criteria
As of late 2025, there is no confirmed release date for ChatGPT-6, and OpenAI has explicitly stated it will not arrive in 2025. This market resolves YES if OpenAI releases a product officially named "ChatGPT6" (or any variant like "ChatGPT-6", "ChatGPT 6", etc.) by December 31, 2027. Resolution will be based on official OpenAI announcements, press releases, or product availability on OpenAI's website or official channels. The market resolves NO if no such product is released by the deadline.
Background
On October 18, 2025, OpenAI officially confirmed that GPT-6 will not ship this year, and the company continues to refine GPT-5 and its reasoning variants while preparing the infrastructure for the next generation. The most likely GPT-6 release date is the first half of 2026. Sam Altman has hinted that the gap between GPT-5 and GPT-6 will be shorter than the long interval between GPT-4 (March 2023) and GPT-5 (August 2025).
Considerations
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman recently indicated that "GPT-6 will be renamed GPT-6-7, you're welcome" via a post on X, revealing the company's tongue-in-cheek plan to rename GPT-5's successor. This suggests OpenAI may use alternative naming conventions for its next major release, which could affect how this market resolves depending on whether alternative names are considered equivalent to "ChatGPT6."
1,000This market conflates two conceptually separate things. At no point in OpenAI's history have they referred to any of their products as "ChatGPT5" or "ChatGPT-4" or anything else that has "Chat" and a number in the name. This is just not possible for a specific reason.
Firstly, there is the GPT language model family. Most releases have a (loosely sequential) number to indicate their version. The sequencing is occasionally clunky and some specific releases aimed at industry professionals don't have these numbers (at least at first) but the numbering there represents a specific thing which can and is meant to loosely be interpreted as a tell that this model is smarter than the previous one.
And then there is the ChatGPT web application serving as one of the official frontends for GPT models among some other products. ChatGPT doesn't have version numbers and doesn't need them because nobody cares about versioning of the frontend and you can only ever access whichever version is current. But when you interface with a model through the API or one of the other frontends (e.g. Codex), you aren't touching ChatGPT in any way. You're only interacting with the specific model, e.g. GPT-5.6. Models are separate from ChatGPT and exist very well without it. Hence "ChatGPT6" isn't a thing and cannot be in principle.
I suggest removing "Chat" from the prospective options in the market title and criteria because this is just misleading as it is.