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MANIFOLD
Will anything bad happen as a result of Kimi K3?
3
Ṁ1.5kṀ3.6k
2027
50%
Other major felony.
45%
Cyberattack ($1M+)
34%
Mass murder attempt (failed)
31%
Cyberattack (Major gov secrets leaked)
31%
Other disaster ($1M+ property losses or 3+ dead)
25%
Murder
23%
Mass murder (3+ dead)
21%
Mass murder (10+ dead)
14%
Mass murder (100+ dead)
14%
Cyberattack ($1B+)
10%
Other disaster ($1B+ property losses or 100+ dead)
6%
Other disaster ($1T property losses or 1,000+ dead)
6%
Mass murder (1,000+ dead)
2%
Cyberattack ($1T+)

I've seen a lot of concern about the release of Kimi K3, an open source model said to be comparable to Claude Mythos/Fable or GPT 5.6 Sol. Will these concerns be borne out?

For the purposes of this market, "mass murder" includes biological or conventional terrorist attacks, including mass shootings, but not conventional military or genocide campaigns where Kimi is used in planning or targeting. I'll take a broad view of causation; any attack in which Kimi K3 (including a fine-tune, abliteration, or other modified version) is proven to have been used for planning or execution in any substantial form will be considered a "result", even if the information was available in other ways.

To simplify resolution, if nobody presents compelling evidence for YES within 1 year, this market will resolve NO.

Market context
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