Resolves YES if Kimi K3 is a cause of something or some set of things one might reasonably describe, colloquially, as 'widespread societal chaos,' that would not have counterfactually happened otherwise.
Resolves NO if Kimi K3 does not do this, and an open model has been released that scores at least 61 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, or a closed model releases widely that scores at least 67.
Resolves N/A if Kimi K3's weights are not released before 9/1/2026 and before another open model scores higher than it did on the AA Intelligence Index.
If there is any doubt on the correct outcome of this market, I will ask a best-of-three judge panel of the top models available at that time from Anthropic, OpenAI and Google.
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@NeuralBets to me, a ban on ai models is definitely not "widespread societal chaos". and i assume if the weights are released and any ban will be spotty at best. individual inference providers can be cajoled but once the weights are out they're out