Which of these numbers will appear in the name of an OpenAI o-series model before 2026? (not counting dates)
6
1kṀ2348
2026
37%
3.5
22%
5

Only resolves if the number is used outside the context of the dates. I'm doing full-number comparison, so 3.5 would not resolve yes for 5

  • Update 2025-05-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator confirmed that a model name such as 'o4-mini' would result in a YES resolution for the option representing the number 4. This clarifies the interpretation of 'full-number comparison' and how a number 'appears in the name':

    • The exact numerical value of an option (e.g., 4) must be present in the model's name.

    • Such a number is considered present even if it is immediately preceded or followed by non-numeric characters (like letters or hyphens, as in the example 'o4-mini').

    • This is consistent with the existing rule that '3.5 would not resolve yes for 5' (as '3.5' is not the number '5'), because in an example like 'o4-mini', the number '4' is present as itself.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:
bought Ṁ1,000 YES

@JaundicedBaboon resolves YES due to o4-mini

@Fynn Done

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules