US Strikes Iran by end of April?
118
1kṀ26k
May 1
15%
chance

Resolves Yes if there is a direct US military attack on Iranian soil before May.

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Ṁ1,000
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bought Ṁ30 YES

Actually now that I think if it this is the best time possible for Israel to provoke Iran

bought Ṁ30 NO

I think Putin with continue dragging out the war in Ukraine, which means the US will be less hasty at starting anything new with Iran

@MalachiteEagle then why move stealth bombers to Diego Garcia? Those usually stay home till needed.

@AlexanderTheGreater last time they seriously bombed the middle east the bombers flew out of Louisiana

ah the US only has 19 B2s

@MalachiteEagle that sounds fucking exhausting

and 6 of them are now on a tiny island in the indian ocean

hmm

surely Iran has the capability to launch a pre-emptive strike on diego garcia?

@AlexanderTheGreater it's an incredible flex though

@MalachiteEagle I'm sure we can shoot down whatever they have.

@MalachiteEagle yeah, getting bombed from Louisiana seems pretty humiliating. "Even our shitty states can bomb you!"

@MalachiteEagle that was a surprisingly fun watch. Thanks for sharing!

@MalachiteEagle apparently the B2 has a bed, toilet and microwave. I somehow imagined it like the cockpit of a fighter jet.

sold Ṁ600 YES

@Dynd what do you know that I don’t 💀

@NeoMalthusian nvm I’m feeling the vibes

@NeoMalthusian Don’t worry about it. Put in another NO limit order for me.

Hello

opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 15% order

@NeoMalthusian This is formulated as if the US had already attacked Iran, but they haven't. It's just a warning in case that they will.

bought Ṁ100 NO

ah you didn't need to N/A, an April market could have been good too... but imo the odds of this are low enough that the May market made more sense since I didn't want people betting on whether this would happen on April 30th or May 1st or whatever

@bens Ah i misread ur market. Ill un-N/A lol

bought Ṁ100 NO

Woops looks like ben s beat me to it

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