-Must be a kinetic attack (cyber doesn't count).

-Must be on Iranian soil, not on their assets elsewhere.

-Ships within Iranian national waters or Iranian planes flying above their territory or something like that would still count (so not literally soil meaning ground/Earth).

-Must be confirmed by consensus of media reporting or confirmations from US and Iranian sources or something... covert ops speculated upon by OSINT accounts would not lead to a YES resolution.

-Espionage activities conducted within Iran also would not be sufficient.  Must be, like, an "attack", in the common usage of the word.

I will not bet in this market to remain objective.