Whose P(Doom) is higher: Emmett Shear (YES) or Sam Altman (NO)?

Question

Resolves whenever each of Sam Altman and Emmett Shear share their P(doom).

For the purpose of this question:

- If they give a range (like 10%-90%), I'll take the midpoint and consider that their P(doom) for the purpose of this question. 
- Resolves when they both publicly share their P(doom) (similar phrasings are allowed).

- Doesn't count instances from before this market was created (but if you're aware of such instances it may inform your predictions)

- For the first person that shares their P(doom), their P(doom) will be the last P(doom) they share publicly before the market resolves. ie if Shear says 30% in 2024, 40% in 2025, and Altman says 35% in 2026, this resolves YES, meaning Shear's P(doom) is deemed higher.

Related market:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/Bayesian/is-emmett-sheer-more-concerned-abou)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 86% chance (16 traders, as of Sep 17, 2024).