Grok 4 Heavy gets on Humanity's Last Exam leaderboard?
2
100Ṁ401Sep 2
24%
chance
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The market resolves YES if Grok 4 Heavy has a score in the leaderboard section of https://agi.safe.ai/, regardless of settings (text-only, tools-allowed, etc.).
While the market stays open, it resolves NO when either of the following happen:
The next major iteration of Grok models is released by xAI without Grok 4 Heavy being generally accessible (including eg. limitation to paid users) in the official xAI API. Examples include Grok 4.2, Grok 4.5, Grok 5.
Grok 4 Heavy is made generally accessible in the official xAI API for a month.
In short, YES if Grok 4 Heavy ever appears on the HLE leaderboard; NO if either (i) a newer Grok generation ships first, or (ii) Grok 4 Heavy is on the xAI API for 30 days without reaching the leaderboard.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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