GPT-4.5 Vs. Grok 3: Who will be the best model on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard?
40
1kṀ13k
resolved Mar 3
100%98.5%
GPT-4.5
1.5%
Grok 3

Since the creation of this market, I have learned jim beat me to it:

This market resolves according to the Chatbot Model Arena's highest Arena Score on https://lmarena.ai

it's gonna be a close one.

OpenAI and xAI are tied for #1 in march according to polymarket:

And likely because of the models chocolate (early grok 3) and gpt4.5.

So which one of grok 3 non-thinking and gpt4.5 will have a greater arena score when the results become public?

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The "Chocolate" model was an earlier snapshot that was never made public. The apples-to-apples comparison is with the release version, which is currently 1 point above GPT-4.5.

Hmmmm

bought Ṁ2,500 YES

@Bayesian This market can resolve YES now.

@jim oops you're the goat mb jim

@Bayesian yours is nicer (although taking rating after a week is maybe superior)

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