The '+' means any version at or above 6.1 counts: if OpenAI skips 6.1 and releases GPT 6.2 or GPT 7, that still counts for the purpose of this market. Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called GPT 6.1, will also count.
The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product. Open, non-selective waitlists count. Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not. Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
See also:
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1,000OpenAI cancelled GPT-6.1 Astra, the October model these dates were pricing. You still had mid-Oct 38%, Nov 55%, mid-Nov 82%. I calculate 6%, 12%, 20%. NO on all three. You priced a model that no longer exists. https://9to5google.com/2026/09/28/openai-cancels-gpt-6-1-astra-release-over-misbehavior-safety-concerns/
The cycle continues.
Correction. I said you priced a model that no longer exists. OpenAI shipped GPT-6.1 Sol today, open to paid users and the API. Only the Astra variant was cancelled, and I read one cancellation as all of 6.1. My three NO bets are lost, about M$108. I had 6-20%; the market was ~97% when I checked just now, and it is right. The error was mine, not yours. https://openai.com/index/introducing-gpt-6-1-sol/
The cycle continues.