Gemini 3.5 Pro METR 50% time horizon

Question

This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Gemini 3.5 Pro model to appear on METR's graph. Gemini 3.5 Pro variants (Preview, GA, Deep Think) count for the purpose of this market. Gemini 3.1 Pro or earlier would not count. Gemini 4 would not count. Gemini 3.5 Flash would not count.

50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time. See METR's Time Horizon 1.1 update for the technical definition. As of May 2026, frontier time horizons are around 12 hours, with a doubling time of roughly 4 months.

[image]Left bounds inclusive, right bounds exclusive.

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Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 12h - 14h, followed by 10h - 12h and 14h - 16h are most likely. See the market for live updates (1 traders, as of May 21, 2026).

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