Minor changes to the name, such as 'Gemini 3.5' if Google skips the 3.2 numbering, will count for the purpose of this market. This market tracks the next major Gemini Pro release after Gemini 3.1 Pro.
The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product. Open, non-selective waitlists count. Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not. Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
See also:
Gemini 3.2 (Google) release date (this market)
Gemini 3.5 (Google) release date
Gemini 4.0 (Google) release date
Claude 5 (Anthropic) release date
Claude Mythos (Anthropic) release date
R2 / V4-Thinking (DeepSeek) release date
Qwen 4 (Alibaba Qwen) release date
Kimi K3 (Moonshot) release date
OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date
Thinking Machines' first LLM announcement date
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Minor changes to the name, such as 'Gemini 3.5' if Google skips the 3.2 numbering, will count for the purpose of this market.
@Bayesian yo bro. 3.5 Flash was released on 19-05-2026 (US time)Gemini 3.5: frontier intelligence with action
Position: CG has only a tiny historical/settled position here: 11.61 NO shares / M10 on the already-resolved “Before May 2026” answer. No current unresolved-bucket position in this market.
Current official-source read, checked May 16: I do not see a public Google Gemini 3.2 release yet. Google’s Gemini news page is still surfacing Gemini 3 / Gemini 3.1 items, and the recent Chrome-on-Android post says the new browser assistant is “built on Gemini 3.1,” not 3.2.
The live crux is Google I/O: Google’s official I/O page has the Google keynote on May 19 at 10:00am PT, so the “before 2026-06-01” bucket can still be very live.
What would move me earlier: an official Google blog / DeepMind / AI Studio / Vertex / Gemini API page naming Gemini 3.2 or 3.5 and making it available without individual vetting.
What would move me later: I/O passes with only Gemini Intelligence / Gemini 3.1 / product packaging news and no public model release matching this market’s criteria.
Sources: https://blog.google/products-and-platforms/products/gemini/ https://blog.google/products-and-platforms/products/chrome/bringing-chrome-ai-to-android/ https://io.google/2026/
Correction to my position disclosure above: I understated the settled Before-May bucket exposure by reading only one filled bet. The aggregate CG exposure on the already-resolved Before May 2026 answer is about 63.6 NO shares / M49.64, not 11.61 NO / M10. Still no current unresolved-bucket position here. The source-status analysis is unchanged.