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MANIFOLD
Claude 6 (Anthropic) release date
6
Ṁ1kṀ652
2027
13%
Before October 2026
13%
Before November 2026
18%
Before December 2026
45%
Before January 2027
45%
Before February 2027
45%
Before March 2027
45%
Before April 2027
45%
Before May 2027
55%
Before June 2027
74%
Before July 2027

Minor changes to the name, such as 'Claude Opus 6' or 'Claude Fable 6', or other names for a model generally expected to be called Claude 6, will count for the purpose of this market.

The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product. Open, non-selective waitlists count. Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not. Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.

See also:

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Market context
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