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MANIFOLD
Claude 6 (Anthropic) release date
46
Ṁ1kṀ22k
2027
1%
Before October 2026
3%
Before November 2026
12%
Before December 2026
22%
Before January 2027
30%
Before February 2027
34%
Before March 2027
42%
Before April 2027
56%
Before May 2027
57%
Before June 2027
66%
Before July 2027

Minor changes to the name, such as 'Claude Opus 6' or 'Claude Fable 6', or other names for a model generally expected to be called Claude 6, will count for the purpose of this market.

The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product. Open, non-selective waitlists count. Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not. Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.

See also:

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filled a Ṁ2 YES at 70% order

@Bayesian what is going on between you and Gluten bot lol

bought Ṁ10 NO

@TomOqhPy it’s giving me a good price for whatever reason